Scotland — chance of reaching the Round of 32

Live model · 72 of 72 group matches played · 20,000 simulations · updates automatically as results come in
0.0%
chance of qualifying as things stand
finish 1st/2nd in Group C, or 3rd among the best 8 of 12
Win group 0.0% · Runner-up 0.0%
3rd & advance 0.0% · 3rd & out 100.0% · 4th 0.0%

Group C — as it stands

#TeamPPtsGDGF
1Brazil Brazil37+67
2Morocco Morocco37+36
3Scotland Scotland33-31
4Haiti Haiti30-62

Third-place race — as it stands

#TeamGrpPtsGDGF
1DR Congo DR CongoK4+14
2Sweden SwedenF4+07
3Ecuador EcuadorE4+02
4Ghana GhanaL4+02
5Bosnia and Herzegovina Bosnia and HerzegovinaB4-15
6Algeria AlgeriaJ4-25
7Paraguay ParaguayD4-22
8Senegal SenegalI3+28
— best 8 advance · cut-off —
9Iran IranG3+03
10South Korea South KoreaA3-12
11Scotland ScotlandC3-31
12Uruguay UruguayH2-13

Where Scotland would land in the Round of 32 — the 3rd-place destination depends on which 8 of 12 groups supply qualifying thirds (FIFA's 495-combination table) · confirmed winners already locked: Mexico (A), Switzerland (B), United States (D), Germany (E), Netherlands (F), Spain (H), France (I), Argentina (J), Colombia (K), England (L)

Group C finishChanceR32 matchOpponentVenue
Win Group C0.0%Match 76Runner-up Group FNRG Stadium, Houston
Runner-up Group C0.0%Match 75Netherlands Netherlands (Winner F)Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe
3rd place (best 8)0.0%Match 74Germany Germany (Winner E)Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
3rd place (best 8)0.0%Match 77France France (Winner I)MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
3rd place (best 8)0.0%Match 79Mexico Mexico (Winner A)Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Eliminated (3rd & out, or 4th)100.0%———

worse for Scotland
better· grey = no change · each card scaled to its own swing
The group stage is complete — no matches left to model. The figure above is Scotland's final group outcome.