Scotland — chance of reaching the Round of 32

Group C — as it stands

#	Team	P	Pts	GD	GF
1	Brazil	2	4	+3	4
2	Morocco	2	4	+1	2
3	Scotland	2	3	+0	1
4	Haiti	2	0	-4	0

Third-place race — as it stands

#	Team	Grp	Pts	GD	GF
1	Sweden	F	3	+0	6
2	Scotland	C	3	+0	1
3	Croatia	L	3	-1	3
4	Algeria	J	3	-2	2
5	Paraguay	D	3	-2	2
6	Cape Verde	H	2	+0	2
7	Belgium	G	2	+0	1
8	Czech Republic	A	1	-1	2
— best 8 advance · cut-off —
9	DR Congo	K	1	-1	1
10	Ecuador	E	1	-1	0
11	Bosnia and Herzegovina	B	1	-3	2
12	Senegal	I	0	-3	3

Where Scotland would land in the Round of 32 — the 3rd-place destination depends on which 8 of 12 groups supply qualifying thirds (FIFA's 495-combination table) · confirmed winners already locked: Mexico (A), United States (D), Germany (E), Argentina (J)

Group C finish	Chance	R32 match	Opponent	Venue
Win Group C	2.0%	Match 76	Runner-up Group F	NRG Stadium, Houston
Runner-up Group C	8.8%	Match 75	Winner Group F	Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe
3rd place (best 8)	56.3%	Match 79	Mexico (Winner A)	Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
3rd place (best 8)	17.4%	Match 74	Germany (Winner E)	Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
3rd place (best 8)	0.0%	Match 77	Winner Group I	MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
Eliminated (3rd & out, or 4th)	15.4%	—	—	—

Every remaining group match below shows how each scoreline would move Scotland's chance from 84.6% — green = better, red = worse. Scotland's own matches (outlined) swing it most; other groups matter via the best-8 third-place cut-off. Rows = first team's goals (↓), columns = second team's (→). Hover for exact odds.

June 24, 2026

↓ v→ Grp B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
1	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
2	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
3	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
4	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
5	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
6	85	85	85	85	85	85	85

#51 · range 85–85%

↓ v→ Grp B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	94	82	82	82	82	82	82
1	82	94	82	82	82	82	82
2	82	82	94	82	82	82	82
3	82	82	82	94	82	82	82
4	82	82	82	82	94	82	82
5	82	82	82	82	82	94	82
6	82	82	82	82	82	82	94

#52 · range 82–94%

↓ v→ SCO

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	100	91	82	67	57	47	39
1	100	100	91	82	67	57	49
2	100	100	100	93	83	73	62
3	100	100	100	100	95	85	78
4	100	100	100	100	100	96	88
5	100	100	100	100	100	100	97
6	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

#49 · range 39–100%

↓ v→ Grp C

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
1	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
2	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
3	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
4	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
5	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
6	85	85	85	85	85	85	85

#50 · range 85–85%

↓ v→ Grp A

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	86	86	86	86	86	86	86
1	74	86	86	86	86	86	86
2	74	74	86	86	86	86	86
3	74	74	74	86	86	86	86
4	74	74	74	74	86	86	86
5	74	74	74	74	74	86	86
6	74	74	74	74	74	74	86

#53 · range 74–86%

↓ v→ Grp A

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	87	87	87	87	87	87	87
1	74	87	87	87	87	87	87
2	77	74	87	87	87	87	87
3	81	77	74	87	87	87	87
4	84	81	77	74	87	87	87
5	86	84	81	77	74	87	87
6	87	86	84	81	77	74	87

#54 · range 74–87%

June 25, 2026

↓ v→ Grp E

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	86	86	86	86	86	86	86
1	73	86	86	86	86	86	86
2	76	73	86	86	86	86	86
3	80	76	73	86	86	86	86
4	83	80	76	73	86	86	86
5	85	83	80	76	73	86	86
6	86	85	83	80	76	73	86

#55 · range 73–86%

↓ v→ Grp E

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	87	87	87	87	87	87	87
1	73	87	87	87	87	87	87
2	73	73	87	87	87	87	87
3	73	73	73	87	87	87	87
4	73	73	73	73	87	87	87
5	73	73	73	73	73	87	87
6	73	73	73	73	73	73	87

#56 · range 73–87%

↓ v→ Grp F

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	83	83	83	83	83	83	83
1	83	83	83	83	83	83	83
2	85	83	83	83	83	83	83
3	88	85	83	83	83	83	83
4	91	88	85	83	83	83	83
5	93	91	88	85	83	83	83
6	94	93	91	88	85	83	83

#57 · range 83–94%

↓ v→ Grp F

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
1	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
2	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
3	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
4	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
5	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
6	85	85	85	85	85	85	85

#58 · range 85–85%

↓ v→ Grp D

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
1	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
2	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
3	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
4	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
5	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
6	85	85	85	85	85	85	85

#59 · range 85–85%

↓ v→ Grp D

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	80	86	90	92	93	93	93
1	80	80	86	90	92	93	93
2	83	80	80	86	90	92	93
3	86	83	80	80	86	90	92
4	90	86	83	80	80	86	90
5	92	90	86	83	80	80	86
6	93	92	90	86	83	80	80

#60 · range 80–93%

June 26, 2026

↓ v→ Grp I

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
1	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
2	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
3	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
4	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
5	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
6	85	85	85	85	85	85	85

#61 · range 85–85%

↓ v→ Grp I

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	93	92	90	86	83	80	80
1	83	93	92	89	86	83	80
2	80	83	93	92	89	86	83
3	80	80	83	93	92	89	86
4	80	80	80	83	93	92	89
5	80	80	80	80	83	93	92
6	80	80	80	80	80	83	93

#62 · range 80–93%

↓ v→ Grp H

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
1	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
2	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
3	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
4	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
5	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
6	85	85	85	85	85	85	85

#65 · range 85–85%

↓ v→ Grp H

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	75	90	90	90	90	90	90
1	75	75	90	90	90	90	90
2	75	75	75	90	90	90	90
3	75	75	75	75	90	90	90
4	75	75	75	75	75	90	90
5	75	75	75	75	75	75	90
6	75	75	75	75	75	75	75

#66 · range 75–90%

↓ v→ Grp G

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	81	81	81	81	81	81	81
1	93	81	81	81	81	81	81
2	93	93	81	81	81	81	81
3	93	93	93	81	81	81	81
4	93	93	93	93	81	81	81
5	93	93	93	93	93	81	81
6	93	93	93	93	93	93	81

#63 · range 81–93%

↓ v→ Grp G

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
1	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
2	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
3	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
4	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
5	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
6	85	85	85	85	85	85	85

#64 · range 85–85%

June 27, 2026

↓ v→ Grp L

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
1	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
2	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
3	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
4	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
5	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
6	85	85	85	85	85	85	85

#67 · range 85–85%

↓ v→ Grp L

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	84	86	89	92	94	95	95
1	84	84	86	89	92	94	95
2	84	84	84	86	89	92	94
3	84	84	84	84	86	89	92
4	84	84	84	84	84	86	89
5	84	84	84	84	84	84	86
6	84	84	84	84	84	84	84

#68 · range 84–95%

↓ v→ Grp K

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
1	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
2	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
3	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
4	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
5	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
6	85	85	85	85	85	85	85

#71 · range 85–85%

↓ v→ Grp K

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	91	91	90	87	84	80	77
1	77	91	91	90	87	84	80
2	77	77	91	91	90	87	84
3	77	77	77	91	91	90	87
4	77	77	77	77	91	91	90
5	77	77	77	77	77	91	91
6	77	77	77	77	77	77	91

#72 · range 77–91%

↓ v→ Grp J

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	80	87	90	92	93	94	94
1	80	80	87	90	92	93	94
2	83	80	80	87	90	92	93
3	87	83	80	80	87	90	92
4	90	87	83	80	80	87	90
5	92	90	87	83	80	80	87
6	93	92	90	87	83	80	80

#69 · range 80–94%

↓ v→ Grp J

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
1	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
2	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
3	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
4	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
5	85	85	85	85	85	85	85
6	85	85	85	85	85	85	85

#70 · range 85–85%