This reallocates the 48 places at the 2030 finals by how well each confederation's teams have actually performed across the last three World Cups (2018, 2022, 2026) — an analogue of the UEFA coefficient that decides how many Champions League berths each European country gets. Nations are the "clubs"; confederations are the "countries".
Scoring (UEFA convention): 2 pts per win, 1 per draw — a knockout level after extra time counts as a draw — plus a steep furthest-stage bonus that deliberately outweighs match form (R32 +2 · R16 +6 · QF +12 · SF +20 · final +30 · winner +42); each further round is worth progressively more. A confederation's coefficient is the average points per team it sent over the three tournaments, so quality counts, not quantity. The 48 spots are then split strictly in proportion to those coefficients (capped at each confederation's membership). 2026 is in progress, so its contribution grows as results come in.
| Confederation | Teams sent | Total pts | Coefficient | 2030 spots | 2026 now | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONMEBOL (S. America) | 15 | 162 | 10.80 | 10 | 6 | +4 |
| UEFA (Europe) | 43 | 463 | 10.77 | 18 | 16 | +2 |
| CAF (Africa) | 20 | 84 | 4.20 | 8 | 9 | -1 |
| AFC (Asia) | 20 | 66 | 3.30 | 5 | 8 | -3 |
| CONCACAF (N./C. America) | 13 | 40 | 3.08 | 5 | 6 | -1 |
| OFC (Oceania) | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | 2 | 1 | +1 |
| Total | 112 | 816 | 48 | 46 |
"2026 now" is each confederation's direct berths at the (48-team) 2026 finals, excluding the 2 inter-confederation play-off places.
Same coefficients, same caps — just 64 places to share instead of 48. Because the split is proportional, the 16 extra berths flow to whoever the membership cap isn't holding back: CONMEBOL stays pinned at its 10 members, so Europe and the rest soak up most of the expansion.
| Confederation | Coefficient | 48-team | 64-team | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONMEBOL (S. America) | 10.80 | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| UEFA (Europe) | 10.77 | 18 | 25 | +7 |
| CAF (Africa) | 4.20 | 8 | 11 | +3 |
| AFC (Asia) | 3.30 | 5 | 8 | +3 |
| CONCACAF (N./C. America) | 3.08 | 5 | 7 | +2 |
| OFC (Oceania) | 1.00 | 2 | 3 | +1 |
| Total | 48 | 64 |
What if CONMEBOL and CONCACAF combined into one bloc? It escapes CONMEBOL's 10-member cap, but its coefficient is diluted to 7.21 — between CONMEBOL's 10.80 and CONCACAF's 3.08. Which force wins flips with field size: at 48 teams the dilution dominates and the Americas loses spots versus staying split; at 64 the freed cap dominates and it gains. "Δ split" compares to the two allocated separately.
| Confederation | Coefficient | 48-team | Δ split | 64-team | Δ split |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA (Europe) | 10.77 | 19 | +1 | 26 | +1 |
| Americas (CONMEBOL + CONCACAF) | 7.21 | 13 | -2 | 18 | +1 |
| CAF (Africa) | 4.20 | 8 | 0 | 10 | -1 |
| AFC (Asia) | 3.30 | 6 | +1 | 8 | 0 |
| OFC (Oceania) | 1.00 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 |
| Total | 48 | 64 |
Points each team earned per tournament (— = didn't qualify), ranked by average points per World Cup across all three — a missed tournament counts as zero, so failing to qualify drags the average down.
| # | Team | Conf | ’18 | ’22 | ’26 | Avg/cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | UEFA | 55 | 41 | 6 | 34.0 |
| 2 | Croatia | UEFA | 40 | 28 | 4 | 24.0 |
| 3 | Argentina | CONMEBOL | 9 | 52 | 6 | 22.3 |
| 4 | England | UEFA | 27 | 19 | 5 | 17.0 |
| 5 | Brazil | CONMEBOL | 19 | 19 | 5 | 14.3 |
| 6 | Belgium | UEFA | 32 | 3 | 4 | 13.0 |
| 7 | Morocco | CAF | 1 | 28 | 5 | 11.3 |
| 8 | Portugal | UEFA | 10 | 18 | 4 | 10.7 |
| 9 | Spain | UEFA | 11 | 10 | 5 | 8.7 |
| 10 | Netherlands | UEFA | — | 20 | 5 | 8.3 |
| 11 | Switzerland | UEFA | 10 | 10 | 5 | 8.3 |
| 12 | Uruguay | CONMEBOL | 20 | 3 | 2 | 8.3 |
| 13 | Japan | AFC | 9 | 11 | 4 | 8.0 |
| 14 | Sweden | UEFA | 18 | — | 3 | 7.0 |
| 15 | Mexico | CONCACAF | 10 | 3 | 6 | 6.3 |
| 16 | Russia | UEFA | 18 | — | — | 6.0 |
| 17 | Colombia | CONMEBOL | 11 | — | 5 | 5.3 |
| 18 | Senegal | CAF | 3 | 10 | 2 | 5.0 |
| 19 | Australia | AFC | 1 | 10 | 3 | 4.7 |
| 20 | United States | CONCACAF | — | 10 | 4 | 4.7 |
| 21 | South Korea | AFC | 2 | 9 | 2 | 4.3 |
| 22 | Denmark | UEFA | 11 | 1 | — | 4.0 |
| 23 | Poland | UEFA | 2 | 9 | — | 3.7 |
| 24 | Germany | UEFA | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3.0 |
| 25 | Iran | AFC | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2.7 |
| 26 | Ecuador | CONMEBOL | — | 3 | 3 | 2.0 |
| 27 | Saudi Arabia | AFC | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.0 |
| 28 | Ghana | CAF | — | 2 | 3 | 1.7 |
| 29 | Tunisia | CAF | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1.7 |
| 30 | Egypt | CAF | 0 | — | 4 | 1.3 |
| 31 | Ivory Coast | CAF | — | — | 4 | 1.3 |
| 32 | Norway | UEFA | — | — | 4 | 1.3 |
| 33 | Algeria | CAF | — | — | 3 | 1.0 |
| 34 | Austria | UEFA | — | — | 3 | 1.0 |
| 35 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | UEFA | — | — | 3 | 1.0 |
| 36 | Cameroon | CAF | — | 3 | — | 1.0 |
| 37 | Canada | CONCACAF | — | 0 | 3 | 1.0 |
| 38 | Cape Verde | CAF | — | — | 3 | 1.0 |
| 39 | Costa Rica | CONCACAF | 1 | 2 | — | 1.0 |
| 40 | DR Congo | CAF | — | — | 3 | 1.0 |
| 41 | Paraguay | CONMEBOL | — | — | 3 | 1.0 |
| 42 | Serbia | UEFA | 2 | 1 | — | 1.0 |
| 43 | South Africa | CAF | — | — | 3 | 1.0 |
| 44 | Nigeria | CAF | 2 | — | — | 0.7 |
| 45 | Peru | CONMEBOL | 2 | — | — | 0.7 |
| 46 | Scotland | UEFA | — | — | 2 | 0.7 |
| 47 | Turkey | UEFA | — | — | 2 | 0.7 |
| 48 | Curaçao | CONCACAF | — | — | 1 | 0.3 |
| 49 | Czech Republic | UEFA | — | — | 1 | 0.3 |
| 50 | Iceland | UEFA | 1 | — | — | 0.3 |
| 51 | New Zealand | OFC | — | — | 1 | 0.3 |
| 52 | Qatar | AFC | — | 0 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 53 | Wales | UEFA | — | 1 | — | 0.3 |
| 54 | Haiti | CONCACAF | — | — | 0 | 0.0 |
| 55 | Iraq | AFC | — | — | 0 | 0.0 |
| 56 | Jordan | AFC | — | — | 0 | 0.0 |
| 57 | Panama | CONCACAF | 0 | — | 0 | 0.0 |
| 58 | Uzbekistan | AFC | — | — | 0 | 0.0 |